Life Without Trump Can Be Found.

And; A consequential week for J.D. Vance

The Decider in Deputy Chief

Happy 249th birthday to the United States of America on this day before July 4th.

At mid-week, just as the latest poll on the 2028 race showed Vice President J.D. Vance leading his nearest rival for the Republican nomination, Secretary of State Marco Rubio by about ten points, Vance used his political capital and his position to break a tie on what might be the most consequential vote of his political career. As vice president serving a president who values loyalty above all else, he didn’t have much choice.

If the Senate vote on budget reconciliation is the disaster Democrats and many Republicans say it is, Vance will probably argue someday he had no choice but to vote yes. He will say he was against many of the measures in the bill; the one that gives tax cuts to the wealthy, and the one that may result in millions of Americans losing healthcare coverage. But in true Vancian style he will also say that he fundamentally agreed with the goals of the legislation; to make government smaller and to get rid of waste, fraud and abuse.

The bill must still pass the House before being signed into law by President Trump and if that bill signing photo-op comes to pass it will be interesting to see how many, and which Republicans, show up to take ownership.

Democrats of course are not waiting. Soon after Vance cast his tie-breaking vote Democratic 2028 hopefuls including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez(D-NY), Governor Gavin Newsom(D-CA) and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg(D-MI) urged voters to “bookmark” this vote and remember whose side Vance was on - whose side Republicans were on - when they voted to give President Trump everything he wanted.

New York Fall Out

One of the sure ways to get ahead in politics is to bet against conventional wisdom. Losing has its consequences, but beating the tide opens up new possibilities, creates new alliances, and strong allies.

That appears to be the early read on the decision by Ocasio-Cortez to support Zohran Mamdani as the Democratic mayoral candidate for New York City. Her support for Mamdani echoes her own decision to run against an established candidate in her first run for Congress and shows her supporters she is still an outsider even as her credentials on the inside expand as she builds seniority.

The question now is where her ambitions might take her. She seems to be looking beyond the House judging by her decision to forgo another attempt to lead Democrats on the Oversight Committee. A few weeks ago the New York based media seemed to be guessing that a run for the U.S. Senate - even if it means challenging Chuck Schumer(D-NY) - was the most likely course. Her “win” with the Mamdani endorsement seems to have renewed speculation about a run for president.

Buttigieg Poll

The Emerson poll everyone is talking about this week(because there is no other poll to consider) has Buttigieg slightly leading former Vice President Harris for the Democratic nomination.

Buttigieg has branded himself as the most articulate candidate of either party in part by being willing to go to unsafe spaces like Fox News to make the Democratic Party’s case.

Buttigieg becomes the first openly gay person to lead a presidential poll in this country. The election is more than two years away, but it is a milestone that will be remembered.

Reporting From Portugal

For the last ten years in the United States Donald Trump has been the inescapable man. Dominating the headlines, the conversation, and almost every aspect of our lives. Many of us can’t get through a day or even an hour without his name coming up, without something he has done or said getting our attention.

I have been out of the country for 72 hours at this writing and I can tell you I have found at least one place where that is not the case; where Trump is not on the tip of everyone’s tongue or lurking in the recesses of our mind.

I can reliably report that if it weren’t for the commitment to writing this newsletter I would have gotten through the last three days Trump free. In fact, America free, if that’s what I was looking for. All this to say that there is normal life on the other side of all this. At some point.

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Porto, Portugal
July 3, 2025